India’s consumer durables market set to hit Rs 3.25 lakh crore by 2030: Report
India’s consumer durables market is expected to grow to Rs 3-3.25 lakh crore by 2030, creating an additional Rs 40,000-50,000 crore opportunity for domestic value addition in materials and component manufacturing, according to a joint report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and industry body CII.The report said India is likely to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer durables markets over the next five years, with annual growth of 8-10% through 2030.Rising household penetration, increasing nuclearisation of families, higher incomes, easier access to financing, wider distribution and growing premiumisation are expected to drive demand.“India is set to remain the fastest-growing major consumer durables market, growing 8-10 per cent annually till 2030 and reach USD 30-35 billion by 2030, with Room Airconditioner growth leading the market,” the report said.By comparison, China, the world’s largest consumer durables market, is expected to grow 1-2% annually through 2030. The US market is projected to expand by around 3%, while Japan is expected to grow 1-3%, the report said, PTI reported.
Imports remain a key challenge
The report also cautioned that a significant share of the growth opportunity could continue to be met through imports unless India expands domestic capacity for components and materials.Localisation of the bill of materials (BOM) currently ranges between 25% and 70% across consumer durables categories. Televisions and air conditioners are at the lower end, while refrigerators and washing machines have higher levels of domestic localisation.The report estimates that localisation could rise to 30-80% by 2030 as domestic component and material manufacturing capacity expands.TV display panels, room air conditioner compressors, refrigerator insulation and washing machine motors were identified as key areas where significant localisation gaps remain.“As domestic component and material capacity ramps up, localisation is estimated to rise to 30–80 per cent by 2030,” it said, adding “Technology partnerships and joint ventures will be required in areas where know-how is concentrated among a few global suppliers, while cluster-led manufacturing can help address scale and cost disadvantages.”
India’s exports lag global potential
Global consumer durables exports are expected to reach USD 900-950 billion by 2030. However, India’s share of global trade remains below 1%, the report said.While India’s consumer durables exports are growing, they remain concentrated in neighbouring markets and regions such as SAARC countries and the UAE, with limited presence in major global import markets.“India faces a material cost disadvantage vs leading exporters, driven by scale, backward integration, technology & policy support gaps, and compounded by limited testing, certification & compliance infrastructure,” the report said.It cited Thailand as an example of a coordinated export ecosystem. Thailand’s share of global air conditioner exports rose from 16% in 2010 to 22% in 2025, making it the world’s second-largest AC exporter.The report said India would need to build a similar ecosystem by developing manufacturing clusters linked to component suppliers, supporting joint ventures and technology acquisition, and creating shared testing and certification facilities.“India will need a similarly coordinated export ecosystem to close its competitiveness gap, building on existing measures such as duty remission, zero-duty capital-goods imports and export-credit support. This should bring together export-oriented manufacturing clusters linked to component ecosystems, support for JVs and technology acquisition, shared ancillary services like testing, certification facilities, lower financing costs and stronger access to priority markets,” it said.The report also flagged limited investment in research and development among Indian consumer durables companies. India’s top listed durables players invest less than 1% of their revenue in R&D, compared with 1-4% among global peers, it said. This limits the industry’s ability to move beyond manufacturing scale towards technology leadership.“Closing this gap requires support targeted at innovation, not just building capacity,” the report said.On technology adoption, the report said Indian business leaders are more optimistic about the potential returns from artificial intelligence than their global counterparts, although workforce readiness remains limited.
