Saudi Aramco stops crude supplies to Indian refiners after pipeline attack; replacement barrels available, but oil is at over $100 and freight costs are set to rise
India’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia have been hit after a pipeline in the Middle East country was shut following attacks from the Houthis. Saudi Aramco has reportedly told Indian refiners that it will suspend crude supplies to them until further notice following attacks on the kingdom’s key East-West pipeline.Although refiners are not expected to face major difficulties in sourcing alternative crude, the bigger concern is the impact of higher oil prices and freight costs.The pipeline was shut late last week after it was allegedly targeted by drones. It had become Saudi Arabia’s main alternative route for transporting crude after the maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, was disrupted.Oil prices have risen sharply since the pipeline was shut, with Brent futures trading at around $108 a barrel earlier this week.
Spot Cargoes Sold to Traders
Aramco has accounted for about 9% of India’s crude imports since the start of the war. The Saudi oil giant has now halted supplies to India through both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, sources told ET. Shipments through Hormuz had already dropped to very low levels before the pipeline was attacked.Saudi Arabia has nevertheless sold some spot cargoes to traders, who are expected to deliver limited quantities to Indian refiners through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the people.These traders are likely to use the same approach they have adopted in recent weeks. They buy Iraqi crude at a steep discount and transport it through the strait to the Gulf of Oman. There, the cargoes are transferred between ships before being transported onward to Indian and other buyers.Aramco generally does not offer crude through the spot market. Instead, it supplies India and other buyers through annual term contracts based on official selling prices.Indian refiners are currently not receiving the term volumes they are contractually due from Saudi Arabia.
Cost implications for India
The refiners are confident they can source crude from other suppliers, but doing so is likely to cost more, according to people familiar with the matter. Oil benchmarks have climbed, while the discounts previously available on Russian crude have disappeared. During supply disruptions, spot-market prices can also rise significantly faster than futures prices.Analysts expect the replacement of Saudi crude to push up both crude procurement costs and freight expenses for Indian refiners. Tanker rates are already close to record levels, increasing the cost of bringing in crude, while falling global inventories are adding further upward pressure on oil prices.Indian refinery executives are also concerned about a possible escalation in the conflict involving Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned Houthis. A worsening conflict could increase threats to energy infrastructure and make crude supplies more uncertain.Saudi Arabia remains one of the most influential oil suppliers globally, accounting for about a 10th of worldwide production capacity and retaining the ability to alter output in response to market conditions.If Saudi crude remains unavailable to global markets for a prolonged period, particularly while inventories are already low, it could add further uncertainty to the oil market.
Russian crude in focus
In the meantime, focus is back on India’s procurement of Russian crude oil. US President Donald Trump has signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 that empowers him to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries buying energy from Moscow.China, India, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan are currently likely to be among the five largest importers of Russian energy. The legislation also proposes expanding sanctions on Iran.In 2022, Russian crude accounted for only a negligible portion of India’s oil imports. However, after the Russia-Ukraine war prompted European countries to impose sanctions on Russian crude, oil from Moscow became available at deep discounts.India subsequently increased its purchases, and Russia’s share of the country’s crude imports has risen steadily. Russia is now India’s largest source of crude oil.A key provision of the bill is that it gives the US President the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100%. The actual decision on whether such tariffs will be imposed, as well as the level of any tariff, rests with Trump.In response to the legislation, India has said it will take “necessary steps” to safeguard its economic interests and maintain energy security.“As stated on several earlier occasions, India remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people,” the Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement.“It will continue to do so through diversified sourcing and on the basis of evolving market dynamics,” it said.The ministry also said the matter had been “discussed at high levels in recent months with various US interlocutors”.“Its potential implications for not just the bilateral relationship but also the international energy market have been very clearly articulated by the Indian side,” it said.
